The forecasts underline the huge challenge facing countries that remain committed to the Kyoto Protocol on climate change. Under the agreement, Japan has pledged to reduce emissions by 6 per cent between 1990 and 2010, while the EU aims to reduce them by 8 per cent.

The UN's latest projections show that the cuts in emissions from eastern Europe, Germany and Russia will be outstripped by the rising emissions of Canada, Japan and most of Europe. The US, which has pulled out of the Kyoto Protocol, is likely to see one of the largest increases - 32 per cent between 1990 and 2010.

However, the projected increases in Europe and Japan will not inevitably translate into a failure to meet Kyoto targets. The projections take account only of emission reductions policies that have already been introduced. The need for domestic emissions reductions can also be greatly reduced by the purchase of surplus emission "credits" from the former Soviet bloc.

The Kyoto Protocol will not come into force until it is ratified by Russia. Joke Waller-Hunter, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said yesterday she was confident Russia would ratify, though she had no clear indication when it would happen.

The EU, responsible for about a quarter of industrialised countries' greenhouse gas emission, this week announced that it had failed to curb emissions for the second successive year.

The main reasons for a1 per cent rise in its 2001 emissions were a cold winter that led households to burn more heating fuel, higher emissions from transport and greater use of fossil fuels in electricity and heat production.

Ten of the 15 member states are heading towards overshooting their agreed shares of the EU emissions targets by a wide margin. Ireland, Spain and Portugal are the furthest off target.

The UK and Germany stand out among EU countries in achieving reductions in emissions, although they both saw large rises in emissions from households and small businesses in 2001.

A UNFCCC review of the UK's efforts at reducing climate change, published yesterday, said it had made a "notable achievement" in reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 12.8 per cent between 1990 and 2000. "In meeting this objective the UK has successfully been able to decouple its economic growth from energy intensity and emissions intensity."

Author Vanessa Houlder Publication Date 09.05.2003 Document Type News articles Issue/Topic Energy & Climate Source Financial Times