According to the
reference case of OPEC's World Energy Model (OWEM),
total world oil demand in 2000 is put at 76 million
barrels per day, As world economic growth continues,
crude oil demand will also rise to 90.6m b/d in 2010 and
103.2m b/d by 2020, according to the OWEM reference case
figures.
|
Country |
Crude oil reserves
(million barrels) |
|
Saudi Arabia |
262,784 |
|
Iraq |
112,500 |
|
United Arab Emirates |
97,800 |
|
Kuwait |
96,500 |
|
IR Iran |
93,100 |
|
Source: OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 1999 |
|
Country |
Crude oil
production
(million barrels per day) |
|
Saudi Arabia* |
7.565 |
|
Former Soviet Union |
7.434 |
|
United States |
5.925 |
|
Iran |
3.439 |
|
China |
3.212 |
|
*
Including share of production from Neutral Zone. |
Source: OPEC
Annual Statistical Bulletin 1999.

Historically, most non-OPEC producers have taken advantage
of OPEC's voluntary production restraint by increasing
their own production whenever possible. As a result, the
market share of non-OPEC producers rose for a number of
years, but oil prices remained at relatively low levels
and the markets were less stable than they could have
been.
However, the oil price slump of 1998 and early 1999
reinforced OPEC's constant message that oil market
stability can only be achieved through co-operation
between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers. In support of
OPEC's efforts to restore stability to the oil market by
restraining output, several non-OPEC oil producers also
cut their production, thus helping prices recover from
the slump. These countries included Mexico, Norway,
Oman, and Russia.

 |
Yes, OPEC believes that oil demand will continue to grow strongly and
oil will remain the world's single most important source
of energy for the foreseeable future. The OWEM reference
case sees oil's share of the world fuel mix falling
slightly from over 41 per cent today to just over 39 per
cent in 2020. However, oil will still be the world's
single largest source of energy. The reduction in oil's
market share is largely due to the stronger growth
enjoyed by other forms of energy, particularly natural
gas (see the table below).
|
World energy fuel
shares
(per cent) |
|
|
1998 |
2000 |
2010 |
2020 |
|
Oil |
41.3 |
41.3 |
40.3 |
39.2 |
|
Gas |
22.2 |
22.4 |
24.1 |
26.6 |
|
Solids |
26.2 |
26.1 |
26.3 |
25.8 |
|
Hydro/Nuclear |
10.4 |
10.3 |
9.3 |
8.5 |
|
Total |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
|
Source: OWEM Scenarios Report, March 2000 |

Oil
is a limited resource, so it may eventually run out,
although not for many years to come. OPEC's oil reserves
are sufficient to last another 80 years at the current
rate of production, while non-OPEC oil producers'
reserves might last less than 20 years. The worldwide
demand for oil is rising and OPEC is expected to be an
increasingly important source of that oil.
If we manage our resources well, use the oil efficiently
and develop new fields, then our oil reserves should
last for many more generations to come.

 |
The
economics of industry depends, in part, on its costs, of
which a large part is represented by the cost of energy,
such as gasoline or fuel oil. The cost of these oil
products is affected by the price of crude oil, taxation
and other factors.
The price of crude oil is influenced by the decisions
taken by all oil producers, particularly the prices for
which they are willing to sell and the quantities they
are willing and able to supply.
If there is a shortage of oil supplies, then the price of
oil will likely rise. This would have all sorts of
implications for industry, such as higher transportation
costs. Higher costs can lead to lower economic growth,
and this will also impact on industry.
The OPEC Statute, written when OPEC was formed 1960,
declares that OPEC is dedicated to providing a stable
petroleum market, with steady supplies to consumers,
reasonable prices and fair returns to investors in the
oil industry. In pursuit of these aims, OPEC has for
many years maintained a limit on the oil produced by its
Member Countries. This has provided for a relatively
stable oil industry, with reasonable prices. But OPEC is
concerned that factors outside of its control may
disrupt this stability. This includes taxation, which
now constitutes the largest part of the price of oil
products in some countries.

 |
Oil
exploration can cost tens or hundreds of billions of
dollars.
The actual costs depend on such factors as the location of
possible oil reserves (i.e. on land or in deep water),
how large the oil field is expected to be, how detailed
the exploration information must be, and the type and
structure of the rock below the ground.
Exploration requires careful mapping of the surface in
order to locate suitable sites (ie, types of geological
structures), deep formation surveys (eg, with two and
three-dimensional seismic techniques), and
test-drilling. It is not easy to determine a typical
cost of such activities.
OPEC has the lowest average production costs in the oil
industry. This is partly because some OPEC Member
Countries have large amounts of oil in reasonably
accessible locations. Yet OPEC Members will still need
to spend tens of billions of dollars in future tomeet
the growing need for oil.

 |
There
is no standard answer to this question, but as a rule of
thumb it can take 3-10 years from the decision to
explore, through to discovery, testing, development and
the delivery of oil from a new field.
The time required depends on where the oil is and thus how
hard it is to discover, test and develop.
For instance, an offshore oil field in deep water can take
much longer to discover and test, due to the challenging
conditions such as bad weather. Drilling in deep water
is also difficult, and it can be very expensive, so the
explorers need time to raise the necessary money.

 |
No.
The 1970s oil crisis was a complex affair reflecting
issues particular to that time and it is unlikely to
ever be repeated.
Indeed, we all learned a lot from that experience. We know
that if oil prices go too high or too low it will be
harmful both to oil producers and oil consumers, both in
the short- and long-term.
OPEC is dedicated to providing a stable oil market, with
reasonable prices and steady supplies to consumers.
Consider the example of the Gulf Crisis in 1990, when
production of several million barrels per day of oil
from Iraq and Kuwait was suddenly halted, leading to a
rapid rise in world oil prices. Those Member Countries
not involved decided to increase their oil supplies in
order to make up for the shortfall. As a result, oil
prices stabilised and came down again to reasonable
levels.
However, there is always potential for instability in the
oil market.
OPEC continues to seek co-operation between oil producers
and among producers and consumers. Such co-operation is
necessary to ensure stability.

 |
Low
prices of crude oil can be caused by a number of
factors. Basically, it could be due to an imbalance
between supply and demand - too much supply or too
little demand.
OPEC Member Countries have for many years adjusted their
crude oil supplies in an effort to improve the balance
between supply and demand.
OPEC's aim at all times is to maintain steady supplies of
oil to consumers, while achieving a reasonable price for
that oil. However, OPEC cannot be expected to achieve
this on its own.
Most non-OPEC oil producers supply as much oil as they
can. That makes it harder for OPEC to maintain stability
in the oil market and it has meant that OPEC has lost
market share and a lot of potential revenue.
If oil production rises faster than demand, then prices
can fall and all of the oil producers will suffer. In
the long run, consumers might also suffer if the oil
industry is unprofitable and discourages investors.

 |
High crude oil prices
could be due to a shortage of oil supplies. High prices
for oil products - as purchased by end consumers such as
motorists - are more likely to reflect other factors,
such as taxation.
Crude oil prices react to the balance of demand and supply
in the short term, and the rate of investment in the
longer term. If investment is not made far enough in
advance, oil supplies could be limited in the longer
term, thus raising prices. Sentiment is also an
important factor: if traders in the oil market believe
there will be a shortage of oil supplies, they may raise
prices before a shortage occurs. Other factors
influencing the price of crude oil include accidents,
bad weather (increasing demand, or halting transport of
oil from producers), labour disputes (strikes) and other
disruptions to production including war or natural
disasters.
Crude oil now represents less than a quarter of the price
of oil products in many countries. Therefore, taxes have
more influence over the price of oil products. When oil
taxes are raised, end consumers often mistakenly blame
the oil producers, but it is really their own
governments that are responsible.
OPEC seeks a stable oil market, without sudden price
changes or excessively high or low prices. We regularly
meet with other oil producers and with consumers in an
effort to improve understanding and trust in the oil
industry and to seek policies and measures that do not
create unnecessary hardship for oil producers or
consumers.
 |
The world lives on oil. Oil is the foundation for the
plastics and petrochemical industries. Oil is
fundamental to the welfare of the industrialised world
and it is a major component of the farming industry.
The price of oil is reflected in most of the things we do.
It impacts on the price of transport, the cost of goods
and services, and the availability of many products,
including food, water and shelter.
If oil prices are too high, then these goods and services
become more expensive and economies experience
inflation. Alternative forms of energy would also become
more cost-competitive, but oil producers would
eventually increase their supplies and prices would come
back down.
If oil prices are too low, consumers would waste this
non-renewable resource, investors would not be attracted
to the industry and oil producers would suffer -
especially the developing countries that produce oil,
such as the OPEC Member Countries. If prices were too
low, supplies would eventually fall until there was a
price shock - leading back to inflation.
Oil prices that are too high or too low are clearly
unhelpful for oil producers, oil consumers and the world
at large. That is why OPEC makes quite sure that the
market is not under-supplied with oil, forcing prices to
go excessively high, and also that the market is not
over-supplied so that prices go too low. It also speaks
to other oil producers to encourage them to avoid
over-supplying the market. It is also why OPEC talks to
oil consumers to encourage them to adopt fair and
equitable policies that do not discriminate against oil.
We would all suffer without steady supplies of oil at
stable, reasonable prices.
